The stock market, The Theory of Rational Expectations and the Efficient Market Hypothesis - Information, competition and the Stocks markets - Theory of Rational Expectations

4 important questions on The stock market, The Theory of Rational Expectations and the Efficient Market Hypothesis - Information, competition and the Stocks markets - Theory of Rational Expectations

What is the theory of rational expectations

Expectations are formed from past experience only. (Changes will occur slowly over time as data changes.)

Even though a rational expectation equals the optimal forecast using all available information, a prediction based on it may not always be perfectly accurate. Why?

  • It takes too much effort to make their expectation the best guess possible.
  • The best guess will not be accurate because the predictor is unaware of some relevant information.

What happens if there is a change in the way a variable moves?

The way in which expectations of the variable are formed will change as
well. (Changes in the conduct of monetary policy)
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What is the formula for rate of return from holdings?

equals the sum of the capital gain on the security, plus any cash payments divided by the initial purchase price of the security

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