Arguments from causes
3 important questions on Arguments from causes
What are the rules concerning arguments about causes?
18. Causal arguments start with correlations.
19. Correlations might have alternative explanations
20. Work towards the most likely explanation.
21. Expect complexity.
What do you have to take into account with rule 19. Correlations may have alternative explanations?
Any correlation might be explained in multiple ways.
-Some correlations might be coincidental.
-Correlation by itself does not establish the direction of the connection. Example: ''people with can-do attitudes tend to be wealthier''. It could be that it is the attitude that causes the wealth, but it could also be that the wealth causes the attitude.
-Multiple or complex causes may be at work, and they move in many directions at the same time.
What do you have to take into account with rule 20. Work toward the most likely explanation?
Since a variety of explanations for a correlation are usually possible, the challenge for a good correlation-based argument is to find the most likely explanation.
1. Fill in the connection.
2. Try to fill in the connection not just for the explanation you favour, but also for alternative explanations.
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