Quantitative Process Analysis
20 important questions on Quantitative Process Analysis
What are three quantitative analysis techniques? And what are these about?
- Queuing Theory
- Process Simulation
What are the three process performance measures? And mention some things they measure.
- Time: cycle time, waiting time/time spent in non-value-added tasks
- Quality: error rates, missed promise
What is cycle time analysis?
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What is the cycle time?
Cycle time = waiting time + actual processing time
How to calculate cycle time for a sequence? A XOR-split? A AND-split? A loop?
For a XOR-split you take the probability for the branch * the cycle time. And do this for each branch and add them. Cycle time = p1T1 + p2T2 + ... + pnTn
For a AND-split you take the maximum for all activities in the two paths. CTparallel = Max{T1, T2, ..., Tn}
For loops you take the activity and divide it by 1 - the probability that it will be retuned back. CT = T / (1-r)
What is the cycle time efficiency and how do you calculate it.
Cycle Time Efficiency = Theoretical Cycle Time / CT
What is the Theoretical Cycle Time (TCT)?
What is WIP and how do you calulate it?
WIP = labda * CT
Labda = the arrival rate (number of new cases per time unit)
What are the limitations of the Quantitative Flow Analysis?
- Fixed load + fixed resource capacity: cycle time analysis does not consider waiting times due to resource contention
Why is queuing analysis important?
- Queuing and waiting time analysis is particulary important in service systems
When is there a queuing delay?
- Job size variation
- High utilization
There is NO queuing delay when the arrivals are regular (deterministic traffic) or sufficiently spaced apart (variable but spaced apart traffic).
What are the basic concepts in the queuing theory and what do they mean? And what can you calculate with these?
this is the mean arrival rate = the average number of arrivals per time unit-
this is the mean service rate = the average number of jobs that can be handled by one server per time unit - c = the number of servers
With these you can calculate
- Occupation rate:
- Wq : average time in queue
- W : average time in system (i.e. cycle time)
- Lq : average number in queue (i.e. length of queue)
- L : average number in system average (i.e. WIP)
What is the most basic system in the queuing theory? Explain it.
The time between arrivals and service time follow a negative exponential distribution is assumed.
There is one server (c =1)
First in is first out.
What is the Poisson process?
The times between arrivals are independent, identically distributed and exponential.
A key property is the fact that a certain event has not happened does not tell us something about how long it will take before it happens.
What are the drawback of the queuing theory?
- It requires case-by-case mathematical analysis
- Assumes "steady-state" (valid only for "long-term" analysis)
What are the advantages of process simulation (compared to the queuing theory)?
- It makes use of a large number of process instances, it gathers data and calculates statistics from the output
What are the steps in evaluating a process with simulation?
- Enhance the process model with simulation info (this makes up a simulation model)
- Run the simulation
- Analyze the simulation outputs
- Repeat for alternative scenarios
What are the elements of a simulation model?
- Resource assignment: mapping from activities to resource classes
- Processing times: per activity or per acitivity-resource pair
- Costs: per activity and/or per activity-resource pair
- Arrival rate of process instances
- Conditional branching probabilities (for XOR gateways)
What are the difficulties of simulation?
- Simplifying assumptions is necessary
- Reliability is largely dependent on the accuracy of the inputs
- Multiple validation loops are necessary with process stakeholders to verify validity
- Sensitivity analysis
Give an example of a more versatile simulation technique and tool.
Accompanying tools: Arena, CPN tools
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