Extremes: Flood risk & predictability
12 important questions on Extremes: Flood risk & predictability
What is the GRADE method? How is it different from the current method?
GRADE:
- weather generator based on P and T for 50,000 yrs
- Use synthetic series as input into hydrological model ,output is Q
- Frequency analysis is done
What is the Generalized Likeliness UE method?
CHECK SLIDE
More parameter sets are accepted downstream, why?
Min 19 - vague answer
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Why is the analysis in Switzerland very poorly, and good in Germany?
- Rain data being used
- Orography in Switzerland
Why overestimation from models (slide 21)?
P = exceedance probability (in a given year)
T = return period (years)
How do you calculate the exceedance probability?
Explain the stat theory of extreme values, based on the Gumbel distribution
Parameters can be determined graphically(?) from measurements. Right side slide 31: fit on the Gumbel distribution.
Gumbel stems from GEV quantile function (generalized e.. Value? Dist). GEV has one degree of freedom more.
Explain the graph below (copy slide 38 without legend). How is this used for extreme Q prediction?
How can GRADE be used for future climate prediction?
WHat is lead time?
..... Is when you have some modelling (min 58).
How to produce a forecast?
initial conditions +
model (structure and parameters)
= forecast (simulation) and compare that to observations
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