Early warnings and conflict prevention
24 important questions on Early warnings and conflict prevention
In his Agenda for Peace, UN Secretary-General Boutros defined conflict prevention. The influential Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict similarly identified three broad aims. Define those three aims:
- To prevent the emergence of violent conflict.
- To prevent ongoing conflicts from spreading.
- To prevent the re-emergence of violence.
In the event that negotiations fail to find an agreed way of resolving the dispute, parties have the option of pursuing conflict but limiting their behaviour to avoid violence. Which two types of means are described:
- Institutionalized practices. > Law, parliamentary decisions, elections and general political campaigning.
- Informal methods.
80% of the countries which will have political crises in two years time show the following indicators:
- High levels of discrimination.
- Regime change.
- Infant mortality.
- Presence of armed conflicts in neighbouring states.
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Over the last 10 years, the United States, the United Kingdom and soms international organizations who have taken up the challenge of devloping early warning system have converged one main indicator of early warning. What is that main indicator?
Disputes are close to the point of violence. What happens?
A wide range of policy options are in principle availible for direct prevention. Name a few official diplomacy options:
- Mediation.
- Conciliation (verzoening).
- Fact-finding.
- Good officers..
- Peace conferences.
- Envoys (gezanten).
A wide range of policy options are in principle availible for direct prevention. Name a few on-official diplomacy options:
- Private mediation.
- Message-carrying.
- Creation of back-channels.
- Peace commissions.
- Problem-solving workships.
- Conflict resolution training.
The effort to resolve a conflict is at the heart of prevention. It involves identifying the key issues, clearing mistrust and misperceptions, and exploring feasible outcomes that bridge the opposing positions of the parties. What is the key issue?
Describe the four types of prevention:
- Deep prevention.
- Early warnings.
- Light prevention.
- Diplomacy.
What does conflict prevention mean?
- The avoidance of armed conflicts.
- The containment of existing armed conflicts.
- The non-recurrence of ended armed conflicts.
Stages of prevention. What stages belong in the avoidance stage of prevention? Before it turns violent.
- Difference.
- Contradiction.
- Polarization.
Stages of prevention. What stages belong in the containment stage of prevention? During war to prevent intensification, prolongation and spread of conflict.
- Violence.
- War.
- Ceasefire.
Stages of prevention. What stages belong in the non-recurrence stage of prevention? After a ceasefire-agreement, preventing relapse.
- Agreement.
- Normalization.
- Reconciliation.
What is addressed in deep-prevention?
Describe the contexts of deep prevention:
- Reducing inequalities in social,
- Economic.
- Or political opportunities.
Describe the structures of deep prevention:
- Creating legitimate institutions through which (non-violent) conflicts can be dealt with.
Describe the relations of deep prevention:
- Improving the quality of inter-group interactions.
How can we enhance deep prevention?
- Involvement, in, and of, international organizations. > Independence, common interests and goals.
- National and local economic, social, and political development. > Escape the conflict trap.
- Implementation of rule of law. > Accountibility.
Describe the phenonmenon of liberal peace:
The problem is not early warning, but it is an early response. Which factors make this response difficult?
- Mobilizing political resources can be difficult when the case is not (yet) "burning".
- Difficult to show results of prevention.
- State sovereignty.
Describe light prevention:
There are three ways to enhance light prevention. What are those three ways?
- Official diplomacy. > By states and international organizations.
- Non-official diplomacy - by NGOs, development agencies, influential social actors, civil society.
- Grassroots conflict prevention. > Initiatives of NGOs, churches, communities.
Official diplomacy - by states and international organizations (UN, EU), diplomats. What type of diplomacy is described here?
Grassroots conflict prevention. > Local community leaders, mediating local conflict. What type of diplomacy is described here?
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