Summary: Contemporary Issues In Finance

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  • 1 Part 1: Introduction

  • 1.1 Time-series Predictability - w1

    This is a preview. There are 8 more flashcards available for chapter 1.1
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  • Fama french three factor model

    CAPM = 70%
    FF 3F model = 95% explained
    Three factor model 
    - market risk
    - company size
    - value factors

    small value stocks outperform large growth stocks
  • Rising treasury yields hit tech = T/F

    True = growth stocks FV is discounted at a much higher rate
  • 1.2 Cross-sectional predictability -w2

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  • Less old view Fama & French 3 factor

    Ze konden meer dan 90% variantie vd gemiddelde rendementen verklaren adhv het 3 factormodel
    1. Market sensitivity (MARKET)
    2. Market capitalisation (SIZE)
    3. VALUE/GROWTH (high book to market or low book to market)

    Small cap value stocks outperform large cap growth
  • New view Fama & French 5 factor

    1. Market sensitivity
    2. Size
    3. Value/growth
    4. + Robust minus weak profitability
    5. + Conservative minus aggressive investments


    --> works even better
    --> but cannot explain momentum
  • Drie problemen met momentum trading

    Trading costs are high
    Long term reversal
    Momentum crashes
  • Factor investing works best when

    Not the result of data mining (pure luck)
    when an economic phenomenon occurs again in the future
    when other traders do not trade on the same information
  • Is momentum anomaly een goede strategie?

    Ja van alle strategieen zijn momentum en anomaly de beste want
    werken historisch altijd
    werken voor elk type investering

    drawbacks = als je nu momentum koopt moet je kijken hoe je portfolio het binnen een maand doet, als je dan verkoopt zijn transactiekosten hoog

    als je transactiekosten wil vermijden door bij te houden zullen goede returns slechter worden

    eerste 12m = winners outperform losers
    na 12m = losers outperform winners
  • Wat zegt Shiller over dividends

    Discount rate news is krachtiger dan cashflow news

    lange termijn investeringen zullen dus lager rendement geven dan de markt = niet logisch dat ze positief gecorreleerd zijn want investeren in een crisissituatie is beter want expected value is hoog en prijs is laag
  • 1.3 Behavioral finance -w3

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  • Wat is behavioral finance

    Een veld dat psychologische theorieen voorsteld om financiele phenomenen te verklaren zoals irrationaal gedrag van managers en beleggers
  • Waarom is decreasing marginal utility belangrijk

    Loss aversion = erger om 100eur te verliezen dan 100 eur te winnen
    Diminishing marginal utility = elke extra eenheid biedt minder toegevoegde waarde
    Wanneer wil je consumeren = expected returns gaan omhoog wanneer consumptie daalt (recessie)
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