Summary: Decision Theory: A Brief Introduction

Read the summary and the most important questions on Decision Theory: A Brief Introduction

• 1 What is decision theory?

• 1.1 Theoretical questions about decisions

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• Decision theory is concerned with:

  Goal-directed behavior in the presence of options

• 2 Decision processes

• 2.1 Condorcet

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• What is the first stage of Condorcets decision process?

  In the first stage, one “discusses the principles that will serve as the basis for decision in a general issue; one examines the various aspects of this issue and the consequences of different ways to make the decision.” At this stage, the opinions are personal, and no attempts are made to form a majority

• What is the second stage of Condorcets decision process?

   “the question is clarified, opinions approach and combine with each other to a small number of more general opinions.” In this way the decision is reduced to a choice between a manageable set of alternatives.

• 2.2 Modern sequential models

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• What are the 5 consecutive problem solving stages of Dewey?

  (1) a felt difficulty 
  (2) the definition of the character of that difficulty
  (3) suggestion of possible solutions
  (4) evaluation of the suggestion
  (5) further observation and experiment leading to acceptance or rejection of the suggestion.

• What are the sequential stages according to Simon?

  • Intelligence
  • Design
  • choice

• What are the decision process stages according to Brim?

  1. Identification of the problem
  2. Obtaining necessary information
  3. Production of possible solutions
  4. Evaluation of such solutions
  5. Selection of a strategy for performance    
  6. Implementation of the decision

• What is the typical thing about the proposals by Dewey, Simon, and Brim?

  they are all sequential in the sense that they divide decision processes into parts that always come in the same order or sequence

• 2.3 Non- sequential models

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• What were the three major phases in the decision process of Mintzberg, Raisinghani, and Theoret?

  • Identification
    
  • Development
  • Selection

• Of which two routines does the identification phase (Simon's intelligence) consist?

  • Decision recognition:  in which "problems and opportunities" are identified "in the streams of ambiguous, largely verbal data that decision makers receive"
  • Diagnosis: "the tapping of existing information channels and the opening of new ones to clarify and define the issues"

• Out of which two routines does the development phase (Simon's design) consist?

  • Search: aims at finding ready-made solutions
  • Design: developing new solutions or modifying ready-made ones.