Dealing with Uncertainty - Introduction

9 important questions on Dealing with Uncertainty - Introduction

What is meant with a decision under risk?

A decision where there is modelled with assumed possible future outcomes or scenarios whose probabilities of occurrence can be estimated.

What is meant with a decision under uncertainty?

A decision problem characterized by several unknown futures for which possibilities of occurrence cannot be estimated.

What is meant with sensitivity? (capital investment decision)

The degree change in an estimate would affect the capital investment decision.
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What are [4] sources of uncertainty?

  1. The inaccuracy of the cash-flow estimates used in the study;
  2. Type of business involved in relation to the future health of the economy;
  3. Type of physical plant and equipment involved;
  4. Length of the study period;

What is meant with the inaccuracy of the cash-flow estimates used in the study (considering uncertainty)?

Accuracy is dependent on the amount of information. Limited information on cash-in and outflows results in inaccurate estimates.

How is uncertainty in capital investment requirements often reflected?

As contingency above the actual cost of plant and equipment.

What is meant with the type of business involved in relation to the future health of the economy (in uncertainty)?

Some types of business operations are less stable than others.

What is meant with the type of physical plant and equipment involved (in uncertainty)?

Some types of structures and equipment have rather definite economic lives and market values. Whereas some have not.

What is meant with the length of a study period (under uncertainty)?

A longer study period decreases the probability of all the factors turning out as estimated.

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