Macro-environment analysis - Scenario analysis
3 important questions on Macro-environment analysis - Scenario analysis
When is scenario analysis used?
What is the difference between scenario analysis and alternative future forecasting?
- Point of scenario's is more te learn than to predict.
What are the 5 basic steps of scenario analysis?
- Defining scenario scope
- Identifying the key drivers for change (eg use PESTEL). Impact, uncertainty and mutual independence. Select key drivers that are on the high scale of all three
- Developing scenario 'stories'
- Identifying impacts
- Monitor progress to see if developments fit scenario expectations
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