The future of hospitality - Predicting the future?

8 important questions on The future of hospitality - Predicting the future?

What is a futurologist and would does he/she?

A person who studies the future and makes predictions about it based on current trends. Futurologists combine a variety of techniques, including economic modelling, trends analysis and scenario construction. The field requires creative thinking, since you have to be able to think beyond existing paradigms.

What are the 4 types of future studie? (Bergman's typology)

1. Predictions
2. Prognoses
3. Utopias
4. Science fiction

What are predictions of the future studies? And example.

Truthful and certain. Predicting the weather for a few days or using econometrics tools for an economic forecast.
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What are prognoses of the future studies?

Dealing with uncertainty but looking for relationships. This all boils down to systems thinking.

What are Utopias of the future studies?

Untruthful and uncertain. These concern a perfect land or place. They are about painting pictures and about creativity.

What is science fiction of the future studies?

Fuzzy futures of the truth and explanation. This is about understanding technology, with grains of truth, and about thinking the impossible.

What are the most important drivers of change for the long-term future? (3)

1. The exponential development of technology
2. The distribution of wealth around the world. Changes in purchasing power will affect travel behaviour.
3. Availability of resources.

How wil the drivers of change for the long-term future affect the hospitality industry? (3)

1. Revolutionary sustainable designs become essential.
2. Global food consumption will double between now and 2050. This will lead to food inflation and the world looking for answers to supply problems.
3. Gastronomy will become more and more important as cooking and baking are the last crafts we can master.

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