Developing an innovation strategy - Linking the components of strategy - Scenario planning
3 important questions on Developing an innovation strategy - Linking the components of strategy - Scenario planning
What is the guiding principle in scenario planning?
The guiding principle is that although the future is unpredictable, cause and effect will still apply and this limits the range of possibilities.
What does scenario planning open the mind to seek?
- Understand the range of futures that might plausibly occur
- Find indicators that can be used to give early warning of which scenario is evolving
- Prepare the way, if only mentally, for possible disruptive changes
- Avoid strategies that could be disastrous
- If possible, find some strategies that are valid for all likely scenarios
What are the steps in scenario planning?
- Identify the issues of concern and the timescale of interest
- Analyse the internal and external forces at work and agree on any assumptions to be made
- Identify trends in key factors and extrapolate to the chosen time
- Identify a small number (usually two or three) of high-impact developments whose outcomes are uncertain
- Consider all possible of the key events. Reject any conbinations that are incompatible or that contradict other assumptions
- Analyse the remaining scenarios in depth. Publicize and propose preparatory actions
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