Developing an innovation strategy - Linking the components of strategy - Scenario planning
3 important questions on Developing an innovation strategy - Linking the components of strategy - Scenario planning
What is the guiding principle in scenario planning?
What does scenario planning open the mind to seek?
- Understand the range of futures that might plausibly occur
- Find indicators that can be used to give early warning of which scenario is evolving
- Prepare the way, if only mentally, for possible disruptive changes
- Avoid strategies that could be disastrous
- If possible, find some strategies that are valid for all likely scenarios
What are the steps in scenario planning?
- Identify the issues of concern and the timescale of interest
- Analyse the internal and external forces at work and agree on any assumptions to be made
- Identify trends in key factors and extrapolate to the chosen time
- Identify a small number (usually two or three) of high-impact developments whose outcomes are uncertain
- Consider all possible of the key events. Reject any conbinations that are incompatible or that contradict other assumptions
- Analyse the remaining scenarios in depth. Publicize and propose preparatory actions
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