Developing an innovation strategy - Technology: The Capability Ceiling - The technology 'S' curve

8 important questions on Developing an innovation strategy - Technology: The Capability Ceiling - The technology 'S' curve

When does the capability ceiling arise?

When an organization can no longer move its products and services up the performance curve on the Kano diagram at the rate demanded by the customers.

Why is the s-curve shaped the way it is?

At first, the technology is emerging, and at the end it will find a capability ceiling. Performance can no longer be improved. All technologies have a natural upper bound on their performance beyond which it simply cannot be pushed.

What is the first stage in the technology s-curve? Explain this stage.

In the early stage, which the technology is in its infancy, the performance is modest and the rate of progress is slow; but each advance provides the basis for further improvement and so progress accelerates and the slope of improvement becomes steeper. This stage is called "The emerging stage".
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What is the second stage in the technology s-curve? Explain this stage.

As the slope of improvement becomes steeper, we enter the second stage. This stage is called "The pacing stage".

What is the third stage in the technology s-curve? Explain this stage.

The improving trends goes on and on and may go on for a very long time. This stage is called "The key stage".

What is the fourth stage in the technology s-curve? Explain this stage.

Eventually, there will come an end to the improving trend when some natural limit is approached. As technology approaches this ceiling, progress becomes slower, investment becomes less and less productive, and the organization becomes vulnerable to attack. This stage is the final stage and is called "The base stage".

When is the threat real for a maturing technology?

Only if the limit to the capability is truly unavoidable and there is a genuine market demand for further improvement.

When is the threat real and urgent for a maturing technology?

If an alternative technology is at hand that does not have disadvantages that outweigh the benefits.

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