Bounded Awareness - Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic - Bias 6: Regression to the Mean
3 important questions on Bounded Awareness - Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic - Bias 6: Regression to the Mean
why is the regression-to-the-mean concept, a fundamental principle of statistics, counterintuitive?
the representative heuristic accounts for this systematic bias in judgment. Individuals typically assume that future outcomes will be directly predictable from past outcomes. We tend to naively develop predictions based on the assumption of perfect correlation with past data
when a performance is extreme, we know it cannot last
under unusual circumstances, we expect performance to regress, but we generally do not recognize the regression effect in less extreme cases.
the tendency of performance to regress to the mean can account for results
verbal feedback may have had absolutely no effect
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