Sources of innovation / SEARCH and READINESS phase of innovation process
6 important questions on Sources of innovation / SEARCH and READINESS phase of innovation process
Name 3 types of techniques to understand changes and the future
- Delphi Method
- Scenario Analysis
Explain the forecasting method for understanding changes and the future. What is it? What should it include? Which factors determine the choice of the forecasting method? Can you give examples of quantitative forecasting?
Explores technology and markets given uncertainty.
With broad participation and informal channels, multiple sources, debate and skepticism.
What should it include?
Quantitative factors
Qualitative factors
Time frame
Probability
Assumptions made
Factors choice of method depends on:
Planning horizon
Rate of environmental change
Availability and accuracy of information
Availability of resources, time and money
Competence and willingness of managers
Examples:
Time series
Trend extrapolation
Regression
Econometric
Why should we perform Scenario analysis?
Put central central and strategic questions in perspective
Enable or assist in decision making. Decisions which are robust to uncertainty
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What is the difference between a prognosis (forecast) and Scenario?
Scenario: Greater possibility of being fairly right
One future - Multiple futures
Hides uncertainty - Clarifies uncertainty
Functional - Cross-functional
Linear - Interactive/iterative
Procedure - Process
Logical - Intuitive and creative
Quantitative - Qualitative
What are the steps of a scenario analysis?
2. Identify influencing factors for today and over the coming years
- EPISTEL + M
3. Set the influencing factors out by degree of effect and degree of uncertainty
4. Identify trends and critical uncertainties
- Trends: High degree of effect, low degree of uncertainty
- Critical uncertainties: High degree of effect, high degree of uncertainty
5. Make the tree of consequences for the trends
6. Use critical uncertainties for making scenarios (scenario cross)
7. Derive implications for strategy
What is an innovation funnel?
Outline concept
Detailed design
Testing
Launch
The question on the page originate from the summary of the following study material:
- A unique study and practice tool
- Never study anything twice again
- Get the grades you hope for
- 100% sure, 100% understanding
