Predicting demand

8 important questions on Predicting demand

Judgmental forecasting methods

  • Sales force composite
  • Jury of executive opinion
  • Wisdom of the crowds
  • Delphi methods
  • Scenario analysis

Market and Survey Analysis forecasting methods

  • Chain ratio method
  • Buyer intentions
  • Product tests

Times Series forecasting methods

  • Naive methods
  • Moving averages
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Box-Jenkins
  • Regression analysis
  • Decompositional methods
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Causal forecasting methods

  • Regression analysis
  • Econometric models
  • Neural networks
  • Multivariate AutoRegressive Moving Average (MARMA)

Foundation of the Bass model

  • Innovators (explorers)
  • Early adopters (visionaries)
  • Early majority (pragmatists)
  • Late majority (conservatives)
  • Laggards (critics)

Factors influencing p

  • Complexity
  • Ease of trial

Factors influencing q

  • Compatibility
  • Observability

Bass model analogies

  • Environmental factors
  • Market structure
  • Buyer behavior
  • Channels used/available
  • Characteristics of product
  • Promotional opportunities

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