Stress Testing
5 important questions on Stress Testing
Principles of scenario analysis?
Challenge is to generate realistic, extreme but likely scenarios
What about portfolio vs event?
Portfolio-driven, risk vulnerabilities in the current portfolio are identified first that translate into adverse movements in risk factors.
What about unidimensional scenarios?
- Parallel yield
- Twisting yield
- Exchange rate
- Volatility, etc.
Point: shock risk factors generally one at a time. But very quick and intuitive.
SPAN, standard portfolio analysis is one example Multiple scenarios and pick the worst to set margins. But on portfolio values and two factors, price and volatility. IT gets a risk-array value.
Biggest challenge is number of factors and scenarios, soon enough the become too big and oppose a hurdle for systematic analysis. Moreover, drawbacks are similar probabilities and ignoring of correlations.
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What about models and parameters?
Two ways:
1) Sensitivity analysis, effect of changing the functional form of the model. PRicing models may fail in times of extreme events. Granularity is needed to measure risks carefully.
2) Model parameters, input into the model. Rely on particular input data.
No simple rule to follow for stress testing. BE aware of limitations, assumptions and measurement errors.
What about policy response?
t withstand every single state of the world. Relevant scenarios are extremely important and require careful planning.
Possible actions:
- Insurance
- Modification
- Restrucutre
- Develop plan (in case that)
- Prepare alternative funding plan
The question on the page originate from the summary of the following study material:
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