Convolution model - Model: Ward workload as function of the MSS

15 important questions on Convolution model - Model: Ward workload as function of the MSS

What is the data needed for each MSS block?

  • Emperical distrecte distribution of surgery frequencies
  • Emperical discrete distributions of Length of Stay (LOS)

What are the [3] steps of the model?

  1. For one operating room block of one specialty;
  2. For a single cycle of the MSS;
  3. For recurring MSSs;

How is the ward workload computed in each step?

The ward workload is computed as a distribution of recovering patients per day, with an increasing scope.
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Step 1. One operating room block of one specialty

What is c(x)?

A random variable for the number of completed surgery
  • consequently, describes the batch size of admission to the ward
  • consequently, represents the number of recovering patients in the hospital on the day of surgery (t=0)

Step 1. One operating room block of one specialty

What is dt?

The probability that a patient who is in the hospital at day t, is discharged on day t

Step 1. One operating room block of one specialty

How can dt be calculated?

Calculated from P(t) the probabililty that the LOS of a patient is exactly t days long.

Step 1. One operating room block of one specialty


What is ht(x)?

The probability of x patients in recovery on day t after carrying out an MSS block.

Step 1. One operating room block of one specialty

What is the formula of ht(x), what do all parts mean?

Binomial distribution

Step 2 A single cycle of the MSS


How is this formulated?

See image.

Step 2 A single cycle of the MSS

What is Ht(x)?

The probabillity of x patients on day t for all specialties

Step 3 recurring MSSs

  What is M?

The last day where there is a positive probability that there is a patient still in recovery after an MSS of length T

Step 3 recurring MSSs

How many consecutive MSS cycles have to be taken into accountant?

[M/T]

Step 3 recurring MSSs

What is the following?

The 'steady state' distribution for the number of patients recovering in the hospital on any day t of the MSS

If you want to know the discharge rate instead of the patients recovering on any day t what adjustment do you have to make?

See image.

What are [2] side nodes for the model?

  • Ignores seasonality
  • Only considered elective patients


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