Qualitative forecasting mehtods
6 important questions on Qualitative forecasting mehtods
What methods consist mainly of subjective inputs. They permit the conclusion of soft information such as: human factors, personal opinions, hunches? --> these factors are difficult or impossible to quantify
What methods involve either the projection of historical data or the development of associative methods that attempt to use causal variables to make forecasts. These techniques rely on hard data.
What forecasts use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives and experts. This can happen when managers don't have enough time to gather and analyse quantitative data. Or when quantitative data is not yet available because we are taking about something new, or these is absence of historical data?
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What opinions are a small group of upper-level managers meet and collectively develop a forecast. The advantage is that you bring together considerable knowledge and talent of various managers. But there is also the risk that the opinion of one of the managers will prevail?
What opinions are members of the sales or customer service staff can be good sources of information due to their direct contact with customers and may be aware of plans customers may be considering for the future. But it is not always easy for them to make the distinction between what customers would like to do and what they actually will do in the future?
--> Dangerous to do forecast on this opinions when your sales people have incentives. As a result they will underestimate the amount of sales so they will almost certainly obtain their bonus.
What is an iterative process in which managers and staff complete a series of questionnaires, each developed from the previous questionnaire, to achieve a consensus for forecast?
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