Legal decisionmaking
13 important questions on Legal decisionmaking
Flaws in legal decision making
LIMITATIONS IN LOGICAL REASONING
CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS
How do we affect decision making?
Prosecutor’s fallacy
Intuition
Tunnel Vision and Confirmation bias
Tunnel vision and confirmation bias?
Example in criminal procedures: The suspect is supposed of having committed a crime
Confirmation bias: Tendency to selectively seek confirmation of personal presumptions, ignoring counterarguments
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Other confirmation basises? Studies
Schunemann & Bandilla (1989): Effect of reading suspect’s file before court sessions
Jenkins & Schuller (2007) and Rassin (2013): FPE (i.e., difficulty with detecting negative causation)
Mckenzie 2002 order effect
Case vignette of a burglary to 120 students
Strong vs weak strength of the case for the prosecution
Three ratings of suspect’s guiltiness (i.e., baseline, after the prosecution and the defence)
Rassin 2017 on evidence order?
3 pieces of incriminating evidence: DNA (although explained by alternative scenario), witness identification, and confession
Participants rated the strength of the evidence
Different presentation of DNA trace, identification, and confession information
on evidence order •Conviction rate higher when DNA first (Study 2)
•Addition of a diagnosis inflated conviction rate (Study 3)
Caruso 2016 order of evidence
Recordings are oftentimes played in slow motion (e.g., 2.25 slower than regular speed)
Unintended impression that the perpetrator of the crime had more time to inhibit himself: Perceived intent is inflated
Results:
Willingness to commit the crime 82% in SM compared with 74% regular speed
Avoid wrong legal decisons? Blind testing
- blind testing approach we need to consider relevant information. kassin it is obvious but it is not the case like using the history of a suspect.
Avoid wrong legal decions multi comperions
Avoid wrong legal decisions likelihood ratio format
- likelihood ratio format wagenaar & schier: is high reccomendated when legal practioner make decisions they should support decisions with providing rate of likelihood that it supports final decisions.
Alternative scenarios, avoid wrong legal decions?
- alternative scenarios: the idea is that legal practitioner should use different approach compared to traditional one. practitioners have to understand if the evidence supports the alternative scenarios or the supported scenario.
Bayesian network analusis: how to avoid wrong legal deciosns?
- bayesian network analysis: alternative approach which is based on alternative approach, use of system. you can skip this you have to know it.
What is another way to avoid a wrong legal decions?
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