Risk assesment

22 important questions on Risk assesment

What are the critria in a risk assesment?

Risk Assessment = Estimating the risk that an adverse outcomes will occur again. ▪ Likelihood ▪ Type adverse outcome ▪ Severity of potential harm ▪ Time period ▪ Context

What is offenders profiling?

Than a offender is not in the picture, it is with risk assesment.

Who conducts risk assesment?

- court
- penal suystem
-mental health care
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Goal of risk assesment?

Reducing (serious) recidivism Advice for decision-making (leave, release, discharge) Recommendations for interventions and treatment Insight into a population

How to do risk assesment?

Unstructured clinical judgment Actuarial approach Structured professional judgment

What are the pros and cons unstructred risk assesment?

Pro
flexibility

con
Limited reliability Limited validity No protection against biases

What are the critques unstructed risk factors?

Critique Determining ‘dangerousness’ in court In the ’70: Realisation that judgments are no better than flipping a coin In the ’80: Protest against use in court Judges keep admitting as evidence in court In the ’90: Focus on improving predictions Identifying risk factors

What is a static risk factor? Pros and cons

there are static risk factors, those factors cant be changed they lie in the past , like times someone was married.

pro: easy to score, just look at the case. based on file info.
con: stigmatizing, irrelevant for risk management because the facts dont change

What is dynamic risk factors? Pros and cons

dynamic risk factors, were more developed.
they grew from mental health services. some are changable.
stable: mental health ilness, you can treat it but it will take some time. but it is changeable
acut: the state a person is in like an exited state.

most dynamic factors are the stable ones.

pro: use for risk management, you can really do something
con: more difficult to rate. clinical expertise is needed.

8 central risk factors are identified?

8 central risk factors are identified
some static, some dynamic
  • criminal history, they found in studies that it is impotant
  • antisocial attitudes, like right to use violence
  • antisocial peers, the network you in
  • antisocial personality
  • substance abuse
  • problematic family/relationship
  • problems ar work/school
  • problems with leisure/recreation
you see these factors return in assesments.

What is the critique on risk factors?

there was critique on risk factors, only looking at the bad things is a one sided approach, people have elements in their personality that protect against reoffending, where are those
?

critique on risk factors?
  • one sided approach
  • neglecting resilience
  • leads to professional negioativms

What are protective factors?

protective factors came up
  • prosocial support, people who advocate for going to school.
  • prosocial future plans
  • stable relationship
it is a buffer against the risk factors


you can look at static risk factors. dynamic risk factors, protective factors, when you look at these you do a structured risk assessment, we are not guided by our own opinion but research.

Critique on auctorial appoach?

Criticism Static factors Group norms ≠ individual risk level Algorithms Often black boxes Garbage in, garbage ou

Critique structred professional judgement?

there is criticism:
  • decision-making process is more challenging
  • more time-intensive, you have to weight them yourself, not very strong guidelines.
  • more room from subjectivity and bias

Diffrence between structred and auctorial?

differences between structured approaches
actuarial
  • file information suffice
  • limited input evaluator
  • less prone to bias
  • result=group
  • informs basic risk



spj
  • more sources needed
  • more flexibility
    more prone to bias
  • results = individual risk judgment
  • informs risk management.

Why structred is better than unstructred?

 Equal and transparent procedure  Empirically-derived risk factors  More consistency between evaluators (reliability)  More accurate risk estimate

What are the 4 gens of risk assesment?

4 generations
  1. unstructured clinical judgement
  2. structured approach using static factors
  3. structured approach using static and dynamic factors
  4. structured approach with integrated risk management.

What are the instruments of risk assesment and how many are there?

200+ instrument. why are there so many, they focus on different aspects. the assessments are mostly developed for men. last years also for women. the second factor is age, most are for adults but also for adulences are greated. there is one risk assessment instrument for children below 12. the time frame in more acute settings they use instruments that asses under 72 hours or a week. also a factor is the type of violence, general offending, child abise, domestic abuse, sexual voilence, sucicide, honor based voilance, slide, workplace violence, stalking, violent .extremism,

Legal Admissibility: Daubert

so it is striving for
  • empirically tested
  • subjected to peer review
  • error rate
  • standards for completion, everybody uses it the same way
  • generally accepted, minimal accepted by the field

What are the barriers to good implementation?

The instrument should be completed as intented Barriers to good implementation Acceptability Adoption Appropriateness Cost Feasibility Fidelity Integration Sustainability

How is communication important with implementation?

Clear and specific communication Aim, context, time frame, factors HOW risk is communicated influences decision-making Mode of presentation Framing

What do we need when we guide intervention planning?

Use risk assessment to guide intervention planning: RNR- approach RISK principle NEED principle RESPONSIVITY principle

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