Analyzing risk

5 important questions on Analyzing risk

When outbreaks occur, analysts use the same basic approach as John Snow:

  1. Count the casualties
  2. Identify possible causes
  3. Try to alter them, hoping to reduce the danger

In smoking, two scientific barriers to faster action where:

  • the difficulty of inferring the causes underlying these correlations
  • the difficulty of identifying the 'effective doses'

For some things, it is difficult to measure the doses. How do they clarify the dose-response relationship

Looking at people who receive large doses, then extrapolate downwards to the effects with smaller doses.
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When extrapolating, it can sometimes not be accurate, what are solutions?

  • performing separate calculations for different populations
  • conduct sensitivity analysis: see how much risk estimates vary with variations in input like: weight, dose etc.

How to overcome overconfidence:

If experts know the limits to their knowledge

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