Defining risk - Conclusion

4 important questions on Defining risk - Conclusion

A system is complex if:


  • Very hard to describe (“the shortest adequate

description of X is long”)
  • Very hard to model or recreate (“the shortest

program that will model or recreate X is long”)
  • Has many potential interconnections between non-

similar parts

Emotional risk perception:

dread, fear or anxiety

Cognitive risk perception:

probabilistic expectation
  • Higher grades + faster learning
  • Never study anything twice
  • 100% sure, 100% understanding
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Expert judgments tend to be most accurate when



They are based on large quantities of prompt,
unambiguous feedback;

There are rewards for accuracy;

They are expressed in explicit, consistent ways;

They take into account human and organizational
factors.

The question on the page originate from the summary of the following study material:

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