Market Risk VaR: Model-Building Approach

4 important questions on Market Risk VaR: Model-Building Approach

Describe the model-building approach.

The MBA also known as the Var-Cov approach is an alternative to the HSA of market risk. This approach involves assuming a model for the joint distribution of changes in market variables. The model parameters are then estimated with actual data (with the typical assumption that changes are distributed according to a multivariate normal distribution, so that aslo the marginals are normal, which is a strong assumption).

Why is the historical simulation approach subjected to errors?

Because the historical simulation approach tries to estimate the percentiles from a finite number of observations. Therefore there exists a chance that you missed numbers that are likely to occur, but did not occur before.

What is the purpose of adding weight to the historical simulation method?

The reasoning is that more recent data is more important than old data. Therefore we want to weight recent data more than old data and therefore we add weights.
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Why volatility scaling?

Volatility scaling scales the historical volatility to todays volatility.

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