6 Bayes’ Theorem

7 important questions on 6 Bayes’ Theorem

What is the formula relating P(A ∪ B) to P(A), P(B), and P(A ∩ B)?

  • P(A ∪ B) =
  • P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

What is P(Ac | B)?

P(Ac | B) is calculated as follows:
  • Use rule 4:
  • - P(Ac | B) = P(Ac ∩ B) / P(B)
  • From rule 5:
  • - P(B) = P(B ∩ A) + P(B ∩ Ac)
  • - Therefore,
  • - P(B ∩ Ac) = P(B) - P(B ∩ A)
  • - P(Ac | B) = 0.2 / 0.3
  • - This results in 0.6667.

What is the exam passing requirement?

To pass the exam, a score of:
  • 5.5 is required in each part.
  • Two parts:
  • - Multiple choice questions
  • - Open questions
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How can you calculate the probability of passing the open questions?

Use known probabilities to find:
  • Rearrange rule 3 for P(B):
  • - P(B) = P(A ∪ B) - P(A) + P(A ∩ B)
  • Resulting in:
  • - P(B) = 0.7

What is the probability a student passes the exam?

The overall passing probability for the exam is:
- P(exam) = 0.6

How is P(B ∩ Ac) calculated?

P(B ∩ Ac) can be calculated using:
  • P(B ∩ Ac) = P(B) - P(B ∩ A)
  • Result: P(B ∩ Ac) = 0.2

What values are used to calculate P(B)?

To find P(B), the following values are used:
  • P(A ∪ B) = 0.9
  • P(A) = 0.8
  • P(A ∩ B) = 0.6

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