1965 to 1990: Five discoveries at Shell - Three competing paradigms in strategic management - The rationalist paradigm

4 important questions on 1965 to 1990: Five discoveries at Shell - Three competing paradigms in strategic management - The rationalist paradigm

What is the aim of the probabilistic approach to scenario-based planning?

The aim is consistent with the rationalist paradigm, to develop a singe criterion against which options can be considered and to build a line of reasoning at the end of which the one optimal decision falls out.

How is this set of structurally different futures conceived?

This set is conceived through a process of causal rather than probabilistic thinking, reflecting different interpretations of the phenomena that drive the underlying structure of the business environment.

What are the tacit assumptions of the rationalist approach?

  • It is useful to think of the organisation as a unitary actor in its environment.
  • There is only one best answer to the strategy question.
  • Everyone thinking rationally on behalf of the organisation will arrive at the same conclusion.
  • Implementation follows discovery of the strategy.

 

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What is the role of invention (Box 3, page 31)?

Success strategies must belong uniquely to the organisation, and are not available to the rest of the world. If there would be a codified way to work out the one right answer, this would be available to all competitors in the market, and would for this reason alone quickly become the wrong answer.

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