Population viability analysis (PVA)

9 important questions on Population viability analysis (PVA)

What is population viable analysis (PVA)?

PVA is the use of models to predict the most likely future status (population size and extinction risk) of populations of conservation concern and how to best manage these populations.

What are the 3 most important aspects of the management of threatened species?

  1. Planning research and data collection
  2. Assessing vulnerability of populations/species
  3. Ranking management options

What are the most important rules in constructing a PVA?

It should:
  1. Not be too complex
  2. Based on reliable data
  3. Focus on what is known rather than what is guessed
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What are deterministic models?

Deterministic models have no variation in parameters over time.
  • When data is limited
  • Comparisons of the general effectiveness of different management strategies for short time periods only
  • By ignoring stochasticity these models paint a too pretty picture!!

What are stochastic models?

Stochastic models have variation in one or more inputs over time.
  • Environmental stochasticity
  • Demographic stochasticity, when population size is small
  • Genetic stochasticity (genetic drift and inbreeding) when population size is small
  • In small populations, chance effects can have a large impact and chance events cannot be predicted.

What are the 4 model forms? Name examples for each model type.

  • Count- or census based models
    - (annual population growth rate etc.)
  • Demographic models
    - Age/life stage specific demographic rates (e.g. survival and reproduction)
  • Metapopulation and spatially structured models
    - Collection of distinct populations linked by movement
    - Prediction of population persistence
  • Individually based simulations
    - Extrensive simulations to track the fates of individual animals
    - Generally focuses on movement and location

What are the major outputs of the PVA?

  • Growth rates
  • Future population size
  • Extinction risk
  • Sensitivity analysis

What are the problems with PVA?

  • PVAs are single species techniques
  • PVAs leave out risk sources that are difficult to estimate or detect
  • PVAs project long into the future when conditions are difficult to predict
  • Lack of data is a major drawback in many cases
    (garbage in = garbage out!!!)

What are the requirements for a successful long-term study?

  • Interest from a dedicated researcher
  • Money
  • The ability to resist the periodic threat of rival ideologies and the administrators who sometimes evoke them
  • Institutional support

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