Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain - Components of a forecast and forecasting methods
4 important questions on Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain - Components of a forecast and forecasting methods
Give 6 factors that are related to the demand forecast, which a company should be knowledgeable about
- Past demand
- Lead time of product replenishment
- Planned advertising or marketing efforts
- Planned price discounts
- State of the economy
- Actions that competitors have taken
Give 4 types of forecasting methods
- Qualitative; primarily subjective, rely on human judgment
- Time series; historical demand is used to make a forecast
- Causal; assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment
- Simulation; imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast.
What is the difference between a systematic and a random component of demand?
The random component is the part of the forecast that deviates from the sytematic part, everything that cannot be predicted, you can only try to filter out the random component and estimate the systematic component.
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What is the forecast error?
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