Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain
4 important questions on Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain
Give 4 characteristics of forecasts which supply chain managers and companies should be aware of
- Forecasts are always inaccurate and should thus both include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.
- Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.
- Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts, as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation or error relative to the mean
- In general, the farther up the supply chain the company is, the greater the distortion of information it receives.
Give the 5 points that are important for an organization to forecast effectively
- Understand the objective of forecasting
- Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout the supply chain
- Identify the major factors that influence the demand forecast
- Forecast at the appropriate level of aggregation
- Establish performance and error measures for the forecast.
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What is the periodicity(p)?
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