A brief history of risk assessment in sentencing - Second generation: actuarial assessment and selective incapacitation

3 important questions on A brief history of risk assessment in sentencing - Second generation: actuarial assessment and selective incapacitation

What was one of the prime criticisms launched at the early actuarial tools?

That they had a high false-positive rate.
So non-recidivists classified als high risk.

How was the prime criticism on the early actuarial tool (partly) remedied?

By using a probabilistic model to estimate the likelihood of future offending.
Actuarial risk assessments compare an individual’s characteristics to a reference group and calculated risk scores reflect the degree of similarity between an individual and a group: a high-risk offender basically shares many characteristics with past recidivists and a low-risk offender shares many characteristics with past non-recidivists.

What was the evolution of crime rates and sentences in 1990's and how did this affect 'the new generation of risk assessment'?

The 1990s bore witness to rising crime rates and the introduction of tougher sentences, as well as rapidly growing prison populations.
The new generation of risk assessment challenged the dominant focus on punitive responses and incapacitation to some extent by a greater focus on treatment potential.

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