Bayesian statistics

5 important questions on Bayesian statistics

What is necessary to perform bayesian statistics?

  • Data
  • a generative model
  • priors; what information the model has before seeing the data
also, every parameter in the model has to be quantified in probability

What is bayesian inference?

  • A generative model can be used to feed parameter values and generate data.
  • often we are in the opposite situation; the data is known
  • in bayesian inference you want to use the generative model to see what parameter values can give rise to the found data.

What are ways to summarize the posterior probability distribution?

  • the maximum likelihood estimate is the parameter value that is most likely to result in our found data.
  • the posterior mean is the mean parameter values that is most likely to result in our found data.
  • a x% credible interval; the chance of the parameter being between these two boundaries is x%
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How can you use the bayes factor to interpret data?

  • A bayes factor of 1 indicates that the experiment did not provide any evidence towards h0 or h1
  • a bayes factor >1 indicates that the data provides evidence for h1
  • a bayes factor <1 indicates that the data provides evidence for h0
a bayes factor of larger than three or smaller than 0.3 can be considered significant evidence

What are advantages for bayesian statistics compared to frequentist statistics?

  • P values do not give evidence for H0 regardless of whether power is high or low. The bayes factor does have the ability to give evidence for H0
  • P values do not provide evidence for H1 in ways sensitive to properties of H1: P values do not punish theories for being vague, bayesian statistics do this.
  • bayes factorsprovide a continuous measure of evidence based on the data, knowledge can continuously get updated.

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