The balance of payments - What is meant by a balance of payments surplus or deficit?

5 important questions on The balance of payments - What is meant by a balance of payments surplus or deficit?

How can one interpret a current account deficit which is more than covered by a net capital inflow (basic balance is in surplus)?

1. The country has nothing to worry about, because it will be able to borrow in the long run (the country is seen as viable by other countries)

2. The basic balance surplus could be a problem, because the long-term borrowing will lead to future interest, profits and dividend payments, which will worsen the current account deficit


> If a country with a CA deficit receives FDI (foreign direct investment) this can be interpreted as a sign of confidence.
  • In the long term FDI can increase the country's capital stock and future export earnings

What is the settlement balance?

The settlement balance: focuses on the operations that the monetary authorities (CB) have to undertake to finance any combined imbalance (of the sum of current account & financial account).

> The autonomous items: all the current; financial; and capital account transactions (including errors)
> Accomodating items: transactions that the monetary authorities have undertaken as indicated by the settlements balance.

The settlement concept ignores the fact that the authorities have other instruments to influence the exchange rate (capital control, interest rate control)
> Does not show the real threat to domestic currency and reserves represented by liquid liabilities

What does it mean when the sum of current accounts (CA) & capital account (KA) is negative?

This means that the country has a deficit and it has to be financed by monetary authorities (CB) drawing on their reserves of foreign currency/ borrowng from foreign CB or the IMF
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What does it mean if there are floating exhange rates in a country for the sub-accounts in the balance of payments?

When there are floating exchange rates, then the settlement account tends to be zero (because the central monetary authorities do not need to account for imbalances).
> This means that there are no changes in reserves
  • Sales of currency > purchases of the currency --> currency depreciates (supply>demand)
  • Sales of currency < purchases of the currency --> currency appreciates (demand>supply)

What does it mean if there are fixed exchange rates?

The authorities put pressure on the devaluation or revaluation of the currency (purchase/sell currency)

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