Mapping the future - Scenario Mapping Compensates

8 important questions on Mapping the future - Scenario Mapping Compensates

What does Scenario Planning seek to compensate in decision making? List the 2 things (Schoemaker, 1995)

  1. Underprediction of the future (change)
  2. Overprediciton of the future (change)

What is the problem with the vision that people have in terms of the rate of change?

The problem is that our vision of the rate of change is lower than the actual change.

Which economist and psychologist looked into our vision of the rate of change and what did he come up with in terms of this?

The psychologist is Kahneman and his work is 'Thinking fast, thinking slow' in which he came up with 'narrative fallacy', you see the future as a slight variation of the past.
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What question is important to consider when it comes to our vision of the rate of change and predicting impactful change?

Who can really predict impactful change? (e.g. Internet)

What happens when people rely too much on technology? And why?

Some overpredict, taking a leap of faith in technology.

What does scenario planning allow us to do in terms of the compensation for the 2 common errors that we make in decision making? List the 2 things (Schoemaker, 1995)

It allows us to chart a middle ground between under- and overprediction by covering two bases of our knowledge: (1) things we believe we know something about; (2) elements we consider uncertain or unknowable.

What is the impact of scenarios? List the 4 things that scenarios can be used for (Schoemaker, 1995; Postma & Liebl, 2005)

  1. To identify early warning signals/awareness of the environment
  2. To assess robustness of core competencies/accelerate learning
  3. To generate better strategic options
  4. To evaluate the risk/return of each option

In terms of the assessing of core competencies, what competencies/capabilities are then referred to?

The ones that will serve the new future.

The question on the page originate from the summary of the following study material:

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