Mapping the future - The Process of Developing Scenarios Schoemaker, 1995

11 important questions on Mapping the future - The Process of Developing Scenarios Schoemaker, 1995

There are 10 steps that can be distinguished when it comes to building a scenario. What 10 steps are these, in short?

  1. Define the scope (scope the scenarios)
  2. Map the stakeholders
  3. Identify basic trends
  4. Identify key uncertainties
  5. Construct initial scenario themes
  6. Check for inconsistency and plausibility
  7. Develop learning scenarios
  8. Identify research needs
  9. Quantify where possible
  10. Evolve towards decision scenarios - interactive process

How can you define the scope, in other words, scope the scenarios?

Identifying the relevant issues by studying the past. Set the timeframe and scope of analysis (products, geographies etc.)

Why map the stakeholders?

Because they can influence the scenario.
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When you are identifying basic trends that will effect the issues (and thus scenarios have to be based on them) identified in step 1, what should you think of?

(PESTEL) political, economic, societal, technological, environmental and legislative analysis

What is the difference between he basic trends and the key uncertainties?

Basic trends exist e.g. Increasing age of population.

When it comes to key uncertainties, what is referred to?

Events that have an uncertain outcome (e.g. New types of competition) and significantly affect the issues of concern.

What are the trends that you should take into consideration for Cowen Pharmaceuticals?

E.g. Technological trend where people tend to buy more online, going from OTC to online distribution.

Why is it necessary to check for inconsistency and plausibility?

The simple worlds that were made in step 5 probably have internal inconsistencies or lack a compelling storyline before they are complete scenarios.

Step 7, which is Develop learning scenarios, evolves around choosing certain scenarios from the options that you have created, what does this step ask you to do?

Identify those scenarios that are strategically relevant and then organise possible outcomes and trends around them.

What does step 9, Quantify where possible, refer to?

Finding the facts and figures where possible to embed the scenario.

Step 10, evolve toward decision scenarios, is an iterative process. What is supposed to happen in this step?

In an iterative process (build it up brick by brick) converge toward scenarios that you will use to test your strategies and generate new ideas.

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